Maldives Meteorological Service (Met Office) is monitoring the impact of developing El Niño conditions on weather patterns in the Maldives.
In a statement issued, Met Office said El Niño conditions are currently forming in the Pacific Ocean, with sea surface levels in the central and eastern Pacific now above normal.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially declared the onset of El Niño on 2 June, warning of increased risks of extreme weather events and significant shifts in global temperature and rainfall patterns.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that typically lasts between nine and 12 months, though in some cases it can persist for longer. It recurs irregularly every two to seven years.
According to the Met Office, El Niño conditions can influence rainfall patterns in the Maldives, although the effects vary depending on its intensity and timing. The agency said some periods may experience above-average rainfall while others may see reduced precipitation.
The Met Office added that weather patterns in the Maldives are also influenced by other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
“Maldives Meteorological Service is closely monitoring these changes,” the statement said.
The statement also included reference charts showing historical rainfall variations in the Maldives during moderate and strong El Niño events.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It affects atmospheric circulation, pressure systems and rainfall distribution globally.
During El Niño conditions, temperatures typically rise across large parts of the Pacific region, altering global weather patterns.
The most recent strong El Niño contributed to 2023 becoming the second warmest year on record, with 2024 recorded as the hottest year globally, at approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.
WMO has forecast above-normal temperatures across much of the world between June and August, with early impacts already observed in parts of Europe.
Earlier seasonal outlooks have indicated the possibility of below-average monsoon rainfall in parts of South Asia, including the Maldives. The Met Office has also forecast slightly below-average rainfall for the current month compared with historical June averages.
