The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted that El Niño will strengthen in the coming days, leading to a decrease in rainfall for South Asian countries, including Maldives.
In a statement released today, the WMO said there is an 80 percent higher chance of "El Niño" conditions, which bring major changes to the global climate, developing between this current month of June and this upcoming August. The agency stated that because of this, there is a fear of facing dangerous weather events.
The agency warned that El Niño impacts are escalating due to the unusually rising temperatures of the Pacific Ocean. It also noted that this is expected to bring major changes to global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate condition that occurs due to unusually high sea surface temperatures. Because of this:
- Sea surface temperatures rise in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
- Major changes occur in global atmospheric circulation, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
- This condition typically lasts for a duration of between 9 and 12 months.
According to the WMO, while the probability of El Niño persisting until November of this year remains above 90 percent, it is likely to be a moderate or strong El Niño.
The head of the agency, Celeste Saulo, told AFP that the entire world needs to prepare for this because El Niño will increase the risk of extreme heat and droughts in some regions, alongside heavy rainfall and flooding in others.
Due to the last strong El Niño, the year 2023 became the second warmest year recorded so far. Furthermore, the year 2024 became the hottest year in history. That year recorded 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average.
"El Niño is at our doorstep. The world must view this as a major climate warning. Because of this, the global warming issue will worsen, and its dangers will spread rapidly," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
Impacts on different regions of the world
The WMO predicts that from June to August, temperatures will rise higher than normally experienced across a large part of the world.
According to the agency's predictions, the monsoon rainfall for South Asian countries, including the Maldives, will be less than what is normally experienced. Maldives Meteorological Service (Met Office) has also predicted that the rainfall in Maldives this month will be lower on average compared to the month of June in other years.
The WMO also stated that the purpose of this warning is to provide an opportunity for early preparation in agriculture, water resource management, energy, and health sectors.
