The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has estimated that Maldives' production rate may slow down quite a bit within this year due to the war in the Middle East.

According to the April Asian Development Outlook report, along with the negative impact on Maldivian tourism due to the war, the price of fuel on the world market may rise to extreme heights and impact the Maldivian economy.

Even though Maldives' economy grew by 5.4 percent in 2025, the report estimates that it may drop to 1 percent in 2026.

However, when the war ends and the state of the global economy balances out, the report estimates that Maldives' production rate may rise to 3 percent in 2027. 

As costs for importing basic goods such as fuel and food have gone up, the report also states that inflation may rise by 5 percent within this year.

As per ADB, since the current government will be making the USD 500 million sukuk payment taken during former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's government this month and would result in progress in Maldives' debt and fiscal state, the weakened foreign currency reserve may experience pressure from the heightened fuel prices and sukuk payment.

ADB stated that even though the sukuk gets paid, Maldives' debt is still keeping the GDP at 130 percent.

During a time where opportunities to borrow from foreign entities is low, ADB's report outlines that recurrent state spending needs to be reduced and economic reform measures must be hastened.

While highlighting that the opening of Velana International Airport's new terminal saw a 10 percent increase in Maldivian tourism last year, ADB's estimates show that the despite the war, the rate of tourist arrivals to Maldives will increase this year.