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The Oil Surge; who's winning, who's losing?

Mohamed Rehan
20 March 2022, MVT 23:13
This photo taken on February 17, 2022 shows a working oil pumpjack in Signal Hill, California. - Californians filling up their cars on March 4, 2022 winced at the spiraling cost of gasoline, but largely shrugged as residents of the state that has long had the highest gas prices in the United States. California drivers are paying an average of more than $5 for a gallon ($1.34 per liter), according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up more than a third from a year ago, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine sends world oil prices rocketing. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP)
Mohamed Rehan
20 March 2022, MVT 23:13

Following the declaration from the Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Moscow's decision to invade neighboring Ukraine, the prices of oil observed volatility.

Oil prices were already soaring high when the Russian invasion of its neighbor came into effect. But the war most certainly acted up as a catalyst as consumers and big-league buyers started to pump in money to make heavy purchases over fears of a possible shortage.

Earlier reports from several international financial organizations and other similar entities pointed out the adverse effects of the oil price surge on consumer households.

In commerce, much like anything else, price movements indicate two things; a side that is gaining and a side that is losing - the bulls, and the bears.

So, at this point, who is winning or gaining and who is losing?

Exxon, BP and the Supermajors

While in 2021, ExxonMobil (XOM) made a profit of $23 billion, the company expects to make around $33 billion in the current year - in light of the oil price surges.

On the other hand, BP earned $12.8 billion in profit during the previous year while the forecast for 2022 puts its profit at around $15.6 billion; again in light of the price surge.

Meanwhile, global energy markets have become extremely volatile due to Russia's invasion.

A week back, Brent crude prices dashed up to $139 per barrel - an all-time high since 2014 - while analysts and trade pundits alike have nodded for possible price touches of $185 or a staggering $200 since traders started pumping more bull action.

Price movements also depend on the availability or the scarcity of oil; which means the productivity ratio plays an instrumental part in maneuvering prices.

Recently, it was reported that Russia may be facing a forced cut down on crude oil production at least by 30 percent - unless Saudi Arabia and other major exporters step in to "save the day."

International Energy Agency (IEA) had warned that the world's second-largest crude oil exporter may be relegated into limiting the output by 3 million barrels per day in April.

This comes in effect as major oil corporations, trading houses, and even shipping conglomerates averted their gazes from Russia.

Before the war, Russia was producing 10 million barrels of crude per day while half of this was exported.

Again, relative scarcity in the availability of crude oil in the global energy market will mean a possible surge of prices - once again.

The Moscow Effect

Russia faces more plight as the United States and its major allies; the UK, Canada, and Australia have collectively banned imports of Russian oil.

This means 13 percent of Russia's exports have become affected and perhaps put on stagnancy.

But this sanction by the US and co. has forced Russia to slice down its crude prices as major oil corporations and big-league banks moved to cease their deals and transactions with Moscow.

The woes continue to add on to Russia as major Western oil companies have already dropped ship on joint-venture deals and partnerships with Russia while any new project has since been halted indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the European Union added salt into Russia's growing injury by announcing a ban on investment in Russia's energy industry.

The Verdict

Based on facts, available data, and the moves made by major oil corporations (including the Big Oil) as well as world governments, it appears crystal clear on who is winning and who is losing in the crude oil game - at least, for now.

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